The index
Both series track regular prices — promotions are published separately. When the unit-price line rises and the shelf-price line doesn't, the pizza got smaller, not pricier. Fixed-basket indexes move in steps: a step is one retailer repricing one product.
Same pizza, different checkout
Every product is the identical GTIN at each retailer — the gap is pure retailer pricing. Latest observed regular unit prices.
At the shelf — latest observation
| Product | oz | Kroger | Target | Walmart |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Pizza Kitchen BBQ Chicken Thin Crust | 14.7 | $8.99 | — | $7.86 |
| Freschetta Naturally Rising Canadian Bacon & Pineapple | 27.5 | $5.99 | — | $5.82 |
| Red Baron Classic Crust Supreme | 23.5 | $4.99 | — | $4.82 |
| DiGiorno Rising Crust Supreme | 29.3 | $6.49 | — | $5.97 |
| Screamin' Sicilian Supremus Maximus Supreme | 25.0 | $7.99 | — | $6.97 |
| Screamin' Sicilian Holy Pepperoni | 22.3 | $7.99 | — | $7.32 |
Regular prices as collected. Promotional prices are tracked as a separate discount-depth series.
The record so far
Regular shelf price at each retailer since Aug 23, 2026, one panel per pizza. Hollow dots mark days a promotion ran, placed at the promoted price — the line itself never follows a promo. Flat is the honest shape: these are shelf prices, and most days nothing moves.
California Pizza Kitchen BBQ Chicken Thin Crust
Freschetta Naturally Rising Canadian Bacon & Pineapple
Red Baron Classic Crust Supreme
DiGiorno Rising Crust Supreme
Screamin' Sicilian Supremus Maximus Supreme
Screamin' Sicilian Holy Pepperoni
The basket
6 products, GTIN-pinned at every rostered retailer. Click through for the full price history.
About this study
The Frozen Pizza Price Index is an independent, non-commercial price study run by Mike Aragon from Phoenix, Arizona. It asks a narrow question with a wide answer: what does the same frozen pizza cost, at the same stores, day after day?
Every day an automated collector records the posted price and package weight of a fixed basket of 6 frozen pizzas at three retailers: Kroger (Fry’s), Target and Walmart. Each basket item is pinned by its barcode, so the index always compares the identical product across retailers and across time. If a package shrinks, the unit-price series shows it even when the shelf price does not.
The headline number is a Laspeyres fixed-basket index: regular (non-promotional) price per ounce, base 100 on October 3, 2026, equal-weighted across products. Promotions are recorded and shown on each product page but never enter the index. Missing observations are disclosed as reduced coverage rather than filled in. Prices shown here are the ones posted by each retailer for its Phoenix store or online storefront and may differ from what you see at your own store.
The collection code, the methodology and the full observation history will be published openly so that the results can be checked and reproduced. This site has no advertising, sells nothing and collects no personal information. Questions and corrections: mike@mikearagon.net.